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UN Horn of Africa: Ethiopia Situation Report - May 2026
This Threat Intelligence Assessment (TIA) examines Ethiopia’s information environment ahead of the 1 June 2026 general elections, focusing on how structural vulnerabilities, digital behaviours, and coordinated influence operations may affect information integrity and democratic processes.
Overview
The Ethiopian general elections on June 1, 2026, are vulnerable to significant risks, including manipulation and disinformation, particularly targeting women, ethnic and religious minorities, and other marginalized groups. The information environment is marked by limited internet penetration, restricted media freedom, and a reliance on social media platforms, creating an environment susceptible to coordinated influence operations and misinformation. Key decision-makers must be aware of the threat of AI-generated content, including deepfakes and gendered disinformation, which could undermine the integrity of the electoral process.
This report includes:
- 1 The report identifies social media as the primary arena for influence operations, where coordinated campaigns exploit existing societal divisions. These campaigns employ a range of tactics, including amplification of identity-based hate narratives, dissemination of false historical claims, and the use of synthetic media such as deepfakes. AI-generated content, particularly gendered disinformation targeting women in leadership, represents a growing threat due to its realism and rapid spread across platforms.
Key Findings
- ▸ Coordinated influence operations in Ethiopia are increasingly sustained by monetised cross-platform digital infrastructures.
- ▸ AI-enabled disinformation and gendered influence operations are emerging as a significant electoral and societal risk, particularly targeting women in leadership and exploiting platform moderation weaknesses.
- ▸ Regulatory and platform policy violations
Published: May 20, 2026 | Analyst: CfA_iLAB_team